MLB DFS Monday Labor Day Vegas Line Commentary

MLB Vegas Line Report 9/4/17

For sports betting and daily fantasy sports

Written By: Matt Meiselman @PreachingSense 

(Updated 9:00 am EST)

 

 

Brief commentary for games on both of Monday’s DFS slates.

 

 

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Brewers at Reds

Chase Anderson / Homer Bailey

Chase Anderson’s ERA is probably the biggest factor in terms of public bias, as his 2.96 ERA comes with a 3.71 FIP and 4.55 xFIP. Anderson has been a below average pitcher for his whole career, so this year’s success could pretty easily be an aberration. The 29 year old Anderson has possibly peaked, but even so, there’s no way he’s as good as the betting public seems to think he is. His underlying numbers suggest he’s slightly above average at best, and a below average pitcher at worst. Anderson is also a flyball heavy pitcher and that does not bode well for a road matchup at Great American Ballpark.

Royals at Tigers

Jake Junis / Artie Lewicki

Artie Lewicki is making his MLB debut, and Jake Junis is coming off of a couple strong performances. Junis has racked up 15 strikeouts and 1 walk in his last 2 starts, and given that he's a rookie there may be some reason to believe he's made some adjustments and will be better than the train wreck that he was earlier this season. However, Lewicki and Junis actually have very similar minor league numbers, and given that Junis has been fairly up and down this season, I think it's reasonable to view these two pitchers as pretty even. With that being the case, there's likely a good amount of value on the Tigers as underdogs in this game.

Cubs at Pirates

Jake Arrieta / Chad Kuhl

This line is simply too high because of standings bias. Not much else to say here.

Twins at Rays

Jose Berrios / Alex Cobb

There are a few main factors here, all of which are covered on today’s Foul Balls podcast. Here they are in list form:

1. The Twins are overvalued due to a recent offensive surge against bad pitching.

2. Jose Berrios is slightly overrated by both his ERA and likely his status as a top prospect.

3. Alex Cobb’s full year stats underrate him, because he's gradually improved as he's recovered from shoulder surgery

4. The Rays offense is undervalued due to poor recent performance.

MLB DFS Sunday: Vegas Line Report

MLB Vegas Line Report 9/3/17

For sports betting and daily fantasy sports

Written By: Matt Meiselman

(Updated 12:00 pm EST)

 

 

 

 

Offenses with the strongest indicators relative to public perception:

 

 

  1. Royals (up)

  2. White Sox (up)

 

 

Royals at Twins

Ian Kennedy / Ervin Santana

Twins have moved from -155 to -190 with 79% of moneyline bets

Total has risen from 9.5 (u -120) to 9.5 (o -120) with 60% over bets

Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana Ervin Santana.

Should I write some actual words now? I guess so. All you really need to know for today is that despite Santana’s recent run of success, his ERA still far outpaces his peripherals and he’s still tremendously overrated. Proceed with caution if considering Santana for a bet or for DFS, because he simply just isn’t as good as you probably think he is.

There’s probably some value in this game as well because the line has moved dramatically in Minnesota’s favor, and it seems to be 100% because of the public. The two big factors are Santana, and then also last night’s 17-0 score which clearly is having an impact on the perception of this game.

 

 

Rays at White Sox

Matt Andriese / Lucas Giolito

White Sox remain at +135 with 32% moneyline bets

Total remains at 9.5 (u -115) with 64% under bets\

There’s some news influencing the sharp money here, as Jose Abreu was scratched and then reinserted into the starting lineup. Either way though, there’s a clear standings bias influencing this game, and Matt Andriese’s ERA is causing some distorted public views as well. Andriese has a 3.38 ERA that is heavily boosted by low babip and high LOB%, and he’s probably a below average pitcher who should have an ERA in the mid 4’s. Lucas Giolito is a prospect with plenty of upside, but this value is more about Andriese and also the general concept of teams down in the standings being inherently undervalued.

 

 

 

 

 

 

MLB DFS Friday: GPP Strategy

Jimmy Nelson  

 

Jimmy Nelson has been one of the most improved pitchers in baseball despite going up against some bad luck. His 3.75 ERA is the best mark of his career, but he has a 3.10 FIP, so he should be allowing less runs this season. Nelson is also striking out 9.97 hitter per nine innings, which is 10th best in baseball. Despite a difficult matchup against the Nationals, this price tag is simply too cheap for a pitcher of Nelson’s quality. He only needs 16.8 DKFP to meet salary expectations and he is averaging just under 19 DKFP per start this year. 

 

Sonny Gray

 

Sonny Gray is coming off his best start since being traded to the Yankees. He struck out nine hitters in seven innings and finished with 31.55 DKFP. Overall he has been solid in pinstripes and has not given more than two earned runs in any start with the Bombers. After a down year in 2016, Gray has bounced back nicely with a 3.26 ERA and a career best 22.8% strikeout rate. The Red Sox are thought of as having one of the best offenses in baseball, but this simply isn’t the case. Against right-handed pitching, Boston is ranked 20th with a .318 wOBA. Since the All-Star break, the Red Sox are 26th in baseball with an 89 wRC+. 

 

Mike Clevinger

 

On the surface this seems like a fair price for Clevinger with an average matchup against the Tigers. However, they shipped away their best hitter, Justin Upton, to the Angels last night and should be a much worse offense for the rest of the year. This is the also going to be the second game of a double-header, so it is possible that Clevinger is going to be facing a Detroit team that is resting some of their regular players. The Tigers made it clear last night that they are building for the future and they are going to be more inclined to want to play their young guys and sit their veterans. Clevinger is coming off a gem where he pitched six shutout innings against the Royals. 

 

Blake Snell

 

Blake Snell is another pitcher with a matchup against a team that has packed it in for the year. The White Sox offloaded some of their veterans at the trade deadline and the results have been a struggling ball club. Chicago is ranked 26th since the All-Star break with a .305 wOBA. Strong winds are expected to be blowing in from center-field, which will be a massive boost for the pitchers in this game. Jose Abreu is quesiotnable to play with an elbow injury and if can’t play then there are very few potent bats for Snell to face tonight. He comes into this game in good form with an average of 27.45 DKFP in his last two outings. 

 

Offenses

 

Yankees

 

I love the Yankees’ offense tonight. They are going to be matched up against Doug First, who was washed up three years ago. The Yankees are also getting healthy for the first time all season. Starlin Castro and Greg Bird have both been activated from the DL and represent sizable upgrades for the Yanks. Bird has a 111 wRC+ in 71 career games and Castro has been one of the better hitting second baseman in the league this year. The Yankees struggles in the month of July have made people forget that they are second in baseball with a .338 wOBA against right-handed pitching.

MLB DFS Friday: Game Breakdown

I’m going to do things a bit differently on this massive slate. Instead of covering every game i’m only going to highlight the games i am targeting and why. On such a massive slate it’s very easy to get overwhelmed with all the options. I feel it’s much more beneficial or helpful to shine light on the games i think people should target and why. With no further adue away we go!

 

 

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

 

BOS

I have no interest in using any of the Red Sox tonight. They are an extremely medicore to below average offense since the all star break. I see no merit in using them against Sonny Gray tonight.

 

GPP

Benintendi

 

NYY

The Yankees are a team i have a ton of interest in using tonight. Doug Fister has struggled a ton against left-handed batters this season. Fister this season is giving up a .370 wOBA, 35% fly ball rate and a 40% hard hit rate. Didi Gregorius and Brett Gardner are two of my favorite targets to use tonight. I like all the Yankees but primarily the left-handed ones tonight. Greg Bird is another guy that should fly under the radar when making Yankees Stacks. He will likely find himself in the seventh hole and will definitely be low owned considering the plethora of options at first base tonight. He has homered in his last two games and finds himself in another intriguing spot tonight against Doug Fister. I don’t really have much interest in using Sonny Gray.

 

GPP

Judge

Bird

Gregorius

Sanchez

Gardner

 

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

 

TOR

I dont really have interest in using any of the Blue Jays tonight against Kevin Gausman. It seems that Gausman has turned his season around based off his last few starts in the months of July and some of August. Most of Gausman’s struggles come from the left-handed side of the plate and if the Blue Jays are in fact without Justin Smoak again i could see a scenario in which Gausman has a good outing tonight.  

 

GPP

Bautista

Donaldson

 

BAL

The Orioles are the league’s hottest offense in the past couple of the months and should look to continue this trend against Joe Biagini. There are no glaring weaknesses with Joe Biagini it just looks like he is a terrible pitcher all around. I would stick to the usual suspects if stacking this Orioles team tonight. Biagini does not give up a ton of fly balls or hard contact to either side of the plate but i do see a situation where the Orioles could BABIP him to death tonight. I like Schoop, Machado, and Jones tonight as primary targets from this Orioles lineup.

 

GPP

Beckham

Jones

Machado

Schoop

Mancini

Trumbo

 

 

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

 

 

PHIL

There isn’t much information on DIllon Peters. This is his first major league start ever and based off his minor league numbers it seems that he is an extreme groundball pitcher. With that being said i still think there is some merit to using a Phillies stack in GPP’s tonight. The last AA pitcher to be called up was Chris Flexen and he is just terrible. I think the Phillies right-handers are in play tonight i just wouldn’t go too crazy with using them. Rhys Hoskins could be in a good spot tonight and should carry some low ownership considering he has cooled down since his absurdly hot start since being called up.

 

GPP

Hoskins

Joseph

Franco

Rupp

 

MIA

 

While Giancarlo Stanton seemed to be in a good spot last night he could be in an even better spot tonight against Nick Pivetta. Pivetta this season in 51 innings is giving up 17 home runs, .423 wOBA, 42% fly ball rate,and a 45% hard hit rate against right-handed hitters. The only concern i have with Stanton is that teams seem to be pitching around him at this point in the season. With that being said i still think he is an elite play on this slate. I think Stanton, Ozuna, and Realmuto are all in play tonight. It’s also worth noting that Pivetta relies heavily on his fastball and Stanton is the 3rd best hitter in the majors against the fastball pitch.

 

GPP

Stanton

Ozuna

Yelich

Realmuto

 

 

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers

 

 

CLE

The Indians are in a great spot tonight as a team. Mike Clevinger could be one of my favorite pitchers to use on this night slate. The Tigers traded away Justin Upton last night which certainly makes this already depleted lineup significantly worse. These two teams are also playing a double header today. It looks like the Tigers are running out their A squad in the early matchup meaning they could rest either Kinsler, Castellanos, and or Cabrera for the night game making their lineup similar to a AAA squad. If this is the case i will be likely all in on Clevinger tonight. He has gone over 30 fantasy points in two of his last three matchups striking out right-handed pitchers at a 29% rate and left-handers at a 25% rate. I have a feeling i’m going to have a ton of exposure to Mike Clevinger.

 

GPP

Clevinger

Ramirez

Lindor

Encarnacion

Santana

 

DET

 

The Tigers are officially in fire sale mode. Last night they traded away Justin Upton and Justin Verlander officially unloading two more valuable pieces from their team. I have no interest in using anyone from this team. They are playing a double header today and it looks like they used all their remaining relevant starters making me believe that they will rest these guys for the second game in this doubleheader.

 

 

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

 

LAA

I’m unsure what exactly the Angels plan on doing with their lineup tonight against Cole Hamels but whichever right-handers make this lineup i will most definitely have interest in using. The Angels just acquired Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips last night in two separate trades adding a big boost to their lineup. Brandon Phillips isn’t in the player pool for tonight but Justin Upton is. He is priced down because the DraftKings pricing algorithm hasn’t adjusted to his current matchup against Hamels. I would have a ton of interest in the Trout/Upton mini stack against Hamels if Upton finds himself into this lineup. It doesn’t seem like the neck injury is bothering Trout too much considering he went 4-4 with a homerun and a triple in his first game since coming back from the minor injury. It’s supposed to be a hot and humid atmosphere tonight in Arlington making for a great hitting environment. I’m all aboard the right-handed angels for this game tonight.

 

GPP

Upton

Trout

Cron

Simmons

 

TEX

 

Adrian Beltre suffered an apparent injury last night and is scheduled to have an MRI tonight. He most likely won’t be in the lineup tonight against the Angels. I have no interest in using any of the Rangers tonight against Skaggs. Skaggs is a pitcher who has dominated left-handed hitters while striking out right-handers at a fairly high rate too. I see no upside in using any of the Rangers tonight.

 

GPP

 

Napoli

 

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

KC

I like the Royals offense tonight in a vacuum the problem with using them is that their aren’t expensive pitchers i like to make them fit accordingly however on a per dollar basis i think this offense could present the most value. I like all the left-handed hitters from this Royals lineup tonight. I think they make for fine plays in tournaments.

 

GPP

Hosmer

Moustakas

 

MNN

 

I’m not really too high on the Twins tonight. I think they are find to use but i just think there are a ton of other offenses in much better spots that i have more interest in using. Hammel has had visible struggles against right-handers but this Twins team doesn’t really have any power right-handers in this lineup without Sano. Dozier is a hitter too consider but he hits left-handers much better than right-handers. Byron Buxton is another hitter to consider but his price is too high and he was injured in yesterday’s game.

 

GPP

Dozier

Rosario

Buxton

 

Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox

 

TB

Blake Snell has really turned the corner in the month of August. Originally i had a ton of interest in using Blake Snell until i read that the White Sox should get their all star first baseman (Jose Abreu) back tonight for this matchup against Snell. Snell in the month of August is sporting a .278 wOBA, 23% K rate, 3.03 FIP, 3.93 XFIP, 51% groundball rate, and a 21% hard hit rate. It seems that he is doing everything right this last month. If the White Sox for whatever reason don’t use Abreu tonight i will plan on having near 100% exposure to Snell tonight.

 

GPP

Snell

 

 

CWS

 

 

Blake Snell has been very good as of late. The White Sox are the worst offense in baseball and i have no interest in using them. However they are supposed to get Jose Abreu back tonight which could add a small boost to their lineup against the left-handed Snell. I do have some interest in using Lopez tonight i’m just unsure of any restricitons he may face considering it is his first start since coming off the DL. He does hold elite strikeout stuff against both sides of the plate making him an intriguing option against this extremely strikeout prone Rays team.

 

GPP

 

Abreu

Lopez

 

Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers

 

WAS

I really have no interest in using any of the Nationals tonight against Jimmy Nelson. I like Jimmy Nelson a lot as a pitcher and i don’t see a need to target against him tonight. The only hitter i would even consider using is Trea Turner because Nelson does have some struggles keeping men on base but outside of that there’s nothing to really to excited about from this team.

 

GPP

Turner

 

MIL

 

Jimmy Nelson on a per dollar basis is my favorite pitcher play of this slate. He is averaging over 10K/9 this season which is an extremely above average rate. At $8,400 you have to definitely consider him even against this tough Nationals lineup. This price point is too low considering the talent level Nelson has. It’s also worth noting that Nelson has pitched much better at home this season and with a matchup against this Nationals team without Harper nothing really scares me about this matchup.

 

GPP

 

Nelson

Thames

 

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

 

ARZ

The Diamondbacks right-handed hitters are some of my favorite targets on tonight’s slate. They get an extremely plus matchup traveling into Coors tonight to face off against the left-handed Kyle Freeland. Freeland this season is giving up a .336 wOBA and a 30% hard hit rate against right-handed hitters. J.D. Martinez and Paul Goldschimdt are two of my favorite targets to use tonight. With all the cheap pitching available it should be fairly easy to squeeze in these high priced bats from the Diamondbacks tonight.

 

GPP

Goldschimdt

Pollock

Martinez

Drury

 

COL

 

The Rockies are at home tonight against Taijuan Walker. While Walker has been having a somewhat decent season compared to previous years i still think the usual suspects are in play against Walker. Charlie Blackmon at home is always one of my favorite targets on any given night, I always think he is worth the high price tag that he’s consistently given.

 

GPP

 

Blackmon

Parra

Gonzalez

 

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

 

LAD

On a normal night i would be extremely interested in using Clayton Kershaw against the miserable Padres but since it’ll be his first start off the DL i have no interest in using him. Manager Dave Roberts already stated that Kershaw will be on a 75 pitch count which will probably prevent him from working past the fifth inning. He is priced over $13,000 and with these kind of restrictions it is extremely unlikely that he will be able to hit value tonight.

 

GPP

Kershaw

 

SDP

 

I will be fading the Padres as per usual. They are going up against Clayton Kershaw and probably don’t stand a chance at doing anything.

 

MLB DFS Thursday: Vegas Line Report

MLB Vegas Line Report 8/31/17

For sports betting and daily fantasy sports

Written By: Matt Meiselman @PreachingSense

(Updated 4:50 pm EST)

 

One key game today.

 

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Offenses with the strongest indicators relative to public perception:

1. Cardinals (up)

2. Giants (down)

Cardinals at Giants

Michael Wacha / Madison Bumgarner

There are enormous misconceptions about the starting pitchers in today’s game. Let’s start with Madison Bumgarner:

Bumgarner missed most of this season after injuring his throwing shoulder in a motorcycle accident, and since his return he’s been a decent amount worse than his former self. Bumgarner’s two lowest career months of velocity are July and August of this season, and he’s shown no uptick in any recent appearance. Bumgarner’s full season stat line reads: 2.85 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, with 8.5 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. The numbers are solid, but they’re still a little worse than typical Bumgarner, and the ERA is deflated due to fortunate babip and LOB% marks. The Cardinals also have one of the better offenses in baseball against lefties with a 102 wRC+, so even with the AT&T park boost, it still could be a tough night on the mound. Speaking of the park factor, that explains some of why Bumgarner’s numbers are generally better than his peripherals suggest, and it probably makes him a little overrated even before this recent injury problem.

*Additional note: If Buster Posey is out again, it should hurt Bumgarner’s effectiveness in terms of pitching framing and holding runners*

Michael Wacha, on the other hand, has an ERA that is much worse than his peripherals suggest it should be. Wacha has been victimized by a high babip, and that’s essentially the only culprit in his difficult season. Wacha gets a big park upgrade tonight that should help him keep pace with, if not surpass the production of Bumgarner, and he generally should be better going forward because of the aforementioned bad luck. The Giants are also arguably the worst offense in baseball, and they certainly are the worst if they’re playing without Buster Posey, who remains questionable for tonight’s game. The real key here though is that Wacha actually may be comparable in overall ability to this version of Bumgarner, and that’s something only the sharps seem to realize.

MLB DFS Thursday: Game Breakdown

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

BOS

There really isn’t much to get too excited about with the Red Sox tonight. I don’t have interest in using Rodriguez tonight in Yankee Stadium. I also don’t have much interest in using the Red Sox against C.C. Sabathia. If i were to target Red Sox to use it would be the right-handed ones against the left-handed Sabathia.

 

GPP

Young

Betts

Ramirez

 

NYY

I’m not quite sure what to make of the Yankees offense tonight against Eduardo Rodriguez. He has proven to hold extreme reverse splits this season giving up the majority of his production to the right-handed side of the plate. I never like to target left-handers against left-handers so i will probably just be fading this Yankees team tonight. Rodriguez is also sporting over a 25% K rate to both sides of the plate. The only hitter that interests me slightly if i have the excess cash to spend up at the catcher position is Gary Sanchez. He is always in play against a left-handed pitcher that is fly ball prone.

 

GPP

Judge

Hicks

Sanchez

Gardner

 

 

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

TEX

The Blue Jays are one of my two favorite stacks of the night tonight. Jeremy Hellickson is not a good pitcher and he’s pitching in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. So far this season Hellickson is giving up a 46% fly ball rate this season which is the 6th highest rate in the majors. It’s also worth noting he has been giving up the majority of his production to the right-handed side of the plate this season giving up a .337 wOBA and 17 home runs. I like all the Blue Jays tonight i think they should be able to exploit Hellickson early and often tonight.

 

GPP

Bautista

Donaldson

Smoak

Pearce

 

BAL

The Baltimore Orioles have been arguably the league’s best offense in the past couple of months. Over the last 30 days the Orioles are number one in the majors with a .301 batting average, 2nd in wOBA, and lead the league in ISO. Like Hellickson, Marco Estrada is also an extremely fly ball pitcher that gives up the majority of his production to the right-handed side of the plate. Estrada this season is giving up .361 wOBA and a 52% fly ball rate. The Orioles are also in play tonight they just come with a higher price tag than the Blue Jays.

 

GPP

Beckham

Jones

Machado

Schoop

Mancini

Trumbo

 

 

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

PHIL

The Phillies are a team i will use a lot tonight. They have an extremely plus matchup tonight against O something Despaigne who by no means is anywhere near the talent level of a major league pitcher. He isn’t a pitcher that will give up a ton of fly balls but he will give up a ton of hits and line drives. He likely won’t last very long and then the Phillies will get to take on the below average bullpen of the Marlins. I like all the switch hitters at the top of this lineup along with WIlliams. I’m unsure if Rhys Hoskins is worth his elevated price tag in this matchup.

 

GPP

Hoskins

Hernandez

Williams

Galvis

Joseph

 

MIA

The Marlins are also in an elite spot against Ben Lively. Lively is a massive fly ball pitcher currently giving them up at a 46% rate to right-handed hitters. What a Shocker! Giancarlo Stanton is in play yet again. Lively this season is giving up a .332 wOBA vs R, 13% strikeout rate, and a 46% fly ball rate. If you’re going to give up fly balls and not miss bats Stanton is going to definitely take advantage of your mistake. I like all the Marlins tonight i think they’re all in play tonight. They should also carry a fairly high ownership due to the size of the plate.

 

GPP

Stanton

Ozuna

Yelich

Dietrich

Realmuto

Gordon

 

 

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

ATL

I don’t have any interest in using any of the Braves tonight. Newcomb is facing a tough Cubs team that performs much better against left-handed pitchers. There is a strong wind gust that’s blowing towards center that could be of Newcomb’s benefit but i won’t be risking anyone from this team.

 

GPP

Newcomb

Freeman

Inciarte

 

CHC

I think Kyle Hendricks is my favorite play amongst all the expensive options for tonight. Hendricks is the cheapest amongst the top three pitchers offered on the slate. While he may not have the easiest matchup amongst these options he is the cheapest and has the strong wind blowing inward obviously playing into his favor. That’s really the only reason why i like him the most. The Cubs are -235 favorites with the over/under set at seven for tonight. It seems that Vegas knows this is going to be a low scoring pitcher's’ duel because of mother nature.

 

GPP

Hendricks

Bryant

Almora

Baez

 

Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers

WAS

Gio Gonzalez is way too expensive for me to roster. He undoubtedly has the best matchup of any pitcher on the slate considering he is going up against the Brewers who hold a 73 wRC+ and over a 25% strikeout rate this season but it’s still not enough for me to pay the salary that’s attached to his name. I don’t really have any interest in any Nationals bats either tonight against Zach Davies. I think there are a couple other offenses i rather use over the Nationals tonight.

 

GPP

Gonzalez

Murphy

Turner

Rendon

 

MIL

The Brewers offense is pathetic. I have no interest in using any of their hitters tonight. I guess you could consider Braun due to his history of mashing left-handed pitchers throughout his career but outside of him i really see no reason to ever roster the Brewers tonight.

 

GPP

Braun

Aguilar

 

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

STL

On a per dollar basis Michael Wacha is by far my favorite pitcher for tonight. He is priced all the way down at $7,400. I think he offers the most upside of anyone on this slate. The Giants are not a good offense and their home ballpark is the most pitcher friendly park in the majors. Buster Posey is also supposed to miss tonight’s game making Wacha an even better play if the Giants are missing the best hitter on their roster.

 

GPP

Wacha

Pham

 

 

SF

I do have interest in Madison Bumgarner but i don’t think he is the same Bumgarner of old. Therefore i also don’t think he is worth the elevated price tag that he currently has. He has been in cruise control lately but i don’t know there is something about him that i just don’t believe in. I think he will be the highest owned pitcher tonight due to the size of the slate and i think there is more upside in fading him rather than using him.

 

GPP

Bumgarner

PGA DFS: Dell Technologies Preview and Rankings

Dell Technologies Championship

By Aaron Bruss  

Twitter: @aabruss

 

 

Well, if you watched the Northern Trust Open last Sunday and didn’t enjoy it then you probably shouldn’t watch golf anymore.  Arguably, the two top players in the world going shot for shot for basically the entire back 9.  Spieth made a 20 footer on number 17 to stay tied with DJ.  Then on 18, DJ made about a 35 footer to force a playoff.  The playoff ended in one hole after a 350+ yard drive by DJ leaving him with a short wedge compared to Spieth’s 7 iron.  DJ knocks it to 3 feet and then accepts his 4th trophy of the year.  We can only hope for the same kind of excitement this week.

Unlike last week, we get a course this week that is rich with data from prior years.  TPC Boston has been on the PGA circuit for quite some time.  It has over gone many changes throughout the years but has only had a view minor tweaks from last year.  Nothing that should affect our data.  TPC Boston is a par 71 that will play at 7,342 yards this week.  The fairways are wide and the rough will not penalize like it did last week.  This is a week where we throw accuracy off the tee out the window and focus on guys that bomb the ball.  We will get another birdie fest here.  Winning scores in the past have been between -15 and -22, by far the most forgiving track in the FedEx playoffs.  My basic strategy for choosing golfers this week is long off the tee and someone we don’t have to worry about their putter.  The last 3 champions have ranked in the top 5 SG:Putting.  Another kind of weird tidbit I found digging through event history… The last 5 champions have been in the top 10 for Par 3 scoring.  Don’t focus on this but definitely worth having in your model.

 

Strategies to attack this week:

 

YOU NEED 6 GUYS TO MAKE THE CUT THIS WEEK. 5/6 lineups will be dead.  There are 100 players in this event and they will cut to 70 plus ties after Saturday.  Play it safe this week. Get your 6 guys through and see what happens.  Next two weeks there is no cut… Take your chances then.

My personal strategy this week is that I am going to lock in the 4 guys listed below as cash plays.  From there I will mix and match with the value plays.  I will be playing cash with my cash line but also maxing out the 20 entry maximum tourneys with different value play combinations. Feel free to follow this strategy but if the core misses be prepared to lose everything.  If it hits, we can all cheer together.

 

Dell Technologies Preview:

 

Course: TPC Boston, Par 71, 7,342 yards, Bentgrass greens

Key stats:

Primary stats:   SG: T2G, Birdie or Better%, Driving Distance, SG: Putting and Proximity

Secondary stats:  Par 3 scoring, SG: Approach and Bogey Avoidance

 

Cash Targets:

 

Jason Day ($9500DK, $9400FD):

Remember when I told you all in on DJ last week? Well your boy Jason Day is that play this week. He slowly turned his game around from his mid-season swoon with top tens at his last two stops.  While it’s tough to get anything out of his season stats because of how bad he played, if we focus on his rounds played on Bentgrass he ranks (in regards to the field) 9th in Driving Distance, 2nd in BoB%, and 1st in Par 3 scoring and SG:Putting.  Perfect recipe and hopefully he fly’s below the radar.

Paul Casey ($8900DK, $9000FD):

There really isn’t much left to say about this guy.  He keeps banging out top ten’s but Fanduel and Draftkings refuse to raise his price. Mr. Casey has not placed out of the top 30 since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. In the ten tourneys he’s played since March he has top 5’s in half of them.  He’s a tee to green guy who doesn’t hit the ball very far but he is so confident in his iron play that driving distance becomes a moot point.

Rickie Fowler ($9700 DK, $9000 FD):

I am becoming fairly impatient with Rickie.  The luster from his Players win a season ago is starting to wear off.  If he wants to be talked about in the same breath as Rory, DJ and Spieth he is going to have to win a big event soon.  Don’t get me wrong, his form is superb but I’m greedy and have played him a lot this season and want a win at something bigger than the Honda Championship.  His game lines up perfectly for this course.  He’s 38th on tour in driving distance which is adequate for this course. Big selling points… 2nd in SG:Putting and 2nd in SG:Total.  Rickie or Day are my picks to win this week.

Adam Scott ($7900 DK, $8600 FD):

Adam is returning a week early from the birth of his child so congrats to him.  I’m sure we will be hearing the distraction narrative all week leading up to the event.  I’m not paying it any attention.  Another guy with a game that fits the course perfectly. And he has the results to prove it.  He is 6/6 making cuts in his last 6 tries and has 4 top tens over that same timeframe.  I’m hoping his season long shaky form and new baby narrative will keep people off.

 

 

POWER RANKINGS – TOP 25 FOR THE EVENT

 

 

  1. Dustin Johnson    - Still my #1 this week. Fading for price, ownership and I try not to play previous tournament winners.  Feel free to fire him up though. He grades out #1 in my model no matter how I tweak it.

  2. Jason Day

  3. Rickie Fowler

  4. Paul Casey

  5. John Rahm

  6. Paul Casey – really like him this week

  7. Hideki Matsuyama    

  8. Jordan Spieth

  9. Adam Scott

  10. Brooks Koepka

  11. Justin Thomas

  12. Matt Kuchar

  13. Patrick Reed

  14. Sergio Garcia

  15. Gary Woodland

  16. Charley Hoffman

  17. Webb Simpson

  18. Xander Schauffele

  19. Patrick Cantlay

  20. Marc Leishman

  21. Tony Finau

  22. Xander Schauffele

  23. Kevin Kisner

  24. Zach Johnson

  25. Justin Rose

 

 

Sleepers 7.5k and under - Extended list for multi entering purposes:

 

 

 

  1. Patrick Cantlay

  2. Tony Finau

  3. Zach Johnson

  4. Ian Poulter

  5. Xander Schauffelle

  6. Marc Leishman

  7. Harold Varner

  8. Charles Howell

  9. Chris Kirk

  10. Bill Haas

  11. Francesco Molinari

  12. Russel Knox

  13. Jamie Lovemark

  14. Brendan Steele

  15. Michael Kim

  16. David Lingmerth

  17. Kevin Tway

  18. Martin Laird

  19. Brian Harman

  20. Jhonattan Vegas

 

 

MLB DFS Thursday: Vegas Line Report

MLB Vegas Line Report 8/30/17

For sports betting and daily fantasy sports

Written By: Matt Meiselman @PreachingSense

(Updated 4:40 pm EST)

 

 

 

Bullpen news

No bullpen report today because it’s the same single bullpen as yesterday, but this will get a mention down below as well: Craig Kimbrel and Addison Reed miraculously appeared in last night’s game despite pitching on back to back days, and have now both pitched 3 days in a row while throwing 111 combined pitches. My guess is that both guys will be rested tonight, and I feel much more confident about this than I did yesterday.

And we have the same games to talk about overall as well...

Offenses with the strongest indicators relative to public perception:

 

  1. Diamondbacks (up)

  2. Red Sox (down)

  3. Blue Jays (up)

 

Red Sox at Blue Jays

Rick Porcello / J.A. Happ

Blue Jays remain at -112 with 37% of moneyline bets

 

Total has dropped from 9 (o -120) to 8.5 (u -115) despite 73% over bets

 

The Blue Jays saw an initial sharp money surge early, and then this line retreated after it was announced that Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak would be resting. Let’s start with the reasons why that initial surge occurred:

First of all, Craig Kimbrel and Addison Reed are both likely to be rested tonight (see above for brief bullpen report). Kimbrel is arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball and one of the best relief pitchers of all time, so it’s a big downgrade for the Red Sox if they don’t have him. Reed has been solid as well, and it’s probably a well-below average bullpen for Boston without them. The other major factors here are 1. Standings bias (which I don’t think needs to be explained anymore) and 2. The starting pitchers. There are big misconceptions about the quality of these starting pitchers, and it may be surprising to many people to hear that this matchup strongly favors Toronto. Rick Porcello has an absurd 40% hard contact rate this season, so his strong K/BB numbers overrate his current form quite a bit. Porcello is also getting fewer grounders than he ever has (39.6% compared to his career average of 49.1%) so those hard hits are turning into extra base hits very frequently. Porcello may be getting overvalued based on his 3.15 ERA last season, and there’s no way he’s that level of pitcher anymore, at least not right now.

J.A. Happ, on the other hand, has been quite unlucky lately, giving up 10 runs over 11 innings in his last 2 starts despite not allowing a single homer and racking up 15 strikeouts against 3 walks. For the year, Happ’s ERA underrates him just a bit, but I think the recent performance is mostly what his him being overlooked. Even against a Red Sox offense that hits lefties better than righties, Happ should be able to turn in a strong performance.

Even with the Blue Jays resting Donaldson and Smoak, there’s still a lot to like on this side of the game. Porcello has been bad enough that just about any MLB hitter has a good chance to do well against him, and it’s not like the Blue Jays don’t have other competent players. Donaldson has also had a subpar season by his standards, so his absence probably isn’t as big of a deal as most people think.

 

 

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

Hyun-Jin Ryu / Robbie Ray

Diamondbacks remain at +101 with only 31% of moneyline bets

Total remains at 9.5 with 77% under bets

 

The Dodgers are dealing with some substantial injuries right now, as it looks like both Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager will miss this game. It’s less big of a deal than usual against a lefty, but it still matters somewhat that these guys won’t be playing. There’s a definite standings bias at play here, and most people will probably fail to adequately account for the diminished offensive capacity that the Dodgers are left with tonight. They should still do fairly well against Robbie Ray with all of the decent right handed bats that they have, but the expected output is certainly less than usual.

The other side of this game is the real key, however, as Hyun-Jin Ryu is being treated like an ace (probably because of his ERA). Ryu has a 3.34 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 3.93 xFIP, so he’s certainly been lucky this season. Ryu profiles similarly to Ray with the hard contact tendencies, but Ryu doesn’t get nearly as many strikeouts, and is probably a worse pitcher overall. Ryu has also managed to allow just 4 runs over his past 5 starts, but he’s done so with fairly pedestrian K/BB numbers and against some pretty easy competition. The Diamondbacks should provide a much tougher test than Ryu is used to, and the sharps clearly view this is a better-than-perceived offensive opportunity.

 

 

 

MLB DFS Thursday: GPP Strategy

Written By: Greg Ehrenberg @gehrenbergdfs

Pitchers

Robbie Ray

Pitching for tonight is very difficult in a sense that all of the top pitchers are either priced higher than usual or are in a difficult matchup. Ray is facing the Dodgers, who are the best team in the National League, but I rank him higher than the other starters on the slate due to his strikeout upside. Ray is among the league leaders in strikeouts by whiffing 11.64 hitters per nine innings. Ray is making just his second start since getting hit in the head by a line drive, but he suffered no ill effects in his first game back. He dominated the Mets in his last start by giving up just one run and striking out nine batters.

 

Jose Berrios

Of the high priced pitchers, Berrios has the easiest matchup, but he doesn’t have the consistency of the other top arms. This is mostly due to Berrios pitching his first full season in the big leagues, but he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has had eight starts this year scoring over 20 DKFP, so he has shown great upside, but it is difficult to predict when he will go off. Chicago is last in the American League with a .306 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year.

 

Jason Vargas

I believe Jason Vargas to be the pitcher most likely to payoff his salary tonight. He has struggled after a strong start to the season, but his matchup tonight against the Rays should help him get back on track. The Rays have an extremely lefty heavy lineup, which has caused them to struggle against southpaws this year. Tampa Bay has the league’s second highest strikeout rate against lefties and they are second to last in the American League against left-handed pitching with a .300 wOBA. The Rays offense has also faded in the second half of the season and has been the lowest scoring team in the AL since the All-Star break.

 

J.A. Happ

Happ is a bit riskier than Vargas, but offers more upside due to his strikeout numbers. Happ is striking out over a hitter per inning this year due to a career best 9.7% swinging strike rate. He is throwing a career low 42.1% of his pitches in the strike zone, but generating a career high of 47.8% of pitches being swung at. Happ is also among the league leaders with a 27.7% hard contact rate, which is the best of his career. Despite this, he is allowing a carer worst 13.4% HR/FB rate. I think there is a lot of bad luck involved in Happ’s ERA this year and I expect him to be a better pitcher going forward.

 

 

Offenses

Royals

While there are no offenses that I really love tonight, the Royals have a really strong matchup against Jake Odorizzi. He has taken a massive step back this season and he has always been a pitcher with extreme home/road splits. For his career, Odorizzi has a 3.51 ERA at home and a 4.41 ERA on the road. Odorizzi also has a 29% ground ball rate, which is ridiculously low. He has a 16.7% HR/FB rate, which makes him one of the most homer prone pitchers in baseball. He has given up at least one homer in 20 of his 22 starts this year.

 

 

 

MLB DFS Tuesday: Bullpen Report

Bullpens Impacting Stacks for DFS 8/29/17



Written By: Matt Meiselman 

 

A very short blurb on the most impactful bullpen for tonight.

 

 

Red Sox (at Blue Jays)

 

 

There’s some potentially problematic fatigue in the Red Sox bullpen tonight, and I think the fact that it’s a night with Chris Sale starting actually makes it more of an issue. The Red Sox have used Craig Kimbrel and Addison Reed on back to back days (39 and 30 pitches respectively) and it’s possible that both will be unavailable tonight. My guess is that Kimbrel will certainly be out, and with Sale on the mound, there’s an increased likelihood that Boston will have a lead to protect. If the Blue Jays are trailing late in tonight’s game, they should have a better than usual shot at making a comeback in the final innings.

 

 

*There’s some sharp money on Toronto that will be covered in today’s Vegas Line Report, and this bullpen news could be a contributing factor*