MLB DFS Monday Freebie

Monday 5/8 Nick’s DFS MLB Game Breakdown

 

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles

 

 

WAS

Although the price is a bit elevated, I do think Gio Gonzalez merits consideration in tournaments. The Orioles rank in the bottom fifth of most categories against left handed pitching also ranking first in strikeout rate against them too. However the Orioles did just beat up Jose Quintana yesterday leading me off of Gonzalez tonight. If Gonzalez has his stuff early he does have double digit K upside tonight. I think Bryce Harper is a phenomenal play tonight and could go fairly low owned tonight considering he is coming off an injury and the Coors Field effect.

 

Cash

Harper

Murphy

                                                                                              

GPP

Harper

Murphy

Werth

Turner

Gonzalez

 

BAL

I do not have much interest in the Orioles as a whole. They are a bottom tier team against left handed pitching. The only guys I have interest in are cheap one offs against Gonzalez. There are much more enticing options elsewhere on this slate.

 

GPP

Trumbo

Mancini

Rickard

 

Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays

 

 

CLE

I am really not anyone from this game as a whole. Usually the Indians bats are always in play but against an extreme groundball pitcher like Stroman it’s easy to look elsewhere on the slate. This will be Edwin Encarnacions first time back in Toronto and he could be attempting to seek some revenge. Stroman on the year sports a .392 wOBA against right-handed bats.

 

Gpp

Santana

Encarnacion

Lindor

Ramirez

Bauer

 

TOR

Usually I am on Marcus Stroman but not tonight against the Indians. I respect the Indians too much as a team. They are well put together lineup from top to bottom and his price seems a bit too high to roster tonight.

 

Gpp

Stroman

Smoak

 

 

 

Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays

 

KC

The Kansas City Royals are the worst offense in baseball. They just allowed Mike Cleavenger to pitch 5 innings striking out 6 batters on his way to a quality start in his first game of the season. I won’t be playing any of the Royals for a long time. They are a bottom tier team in wOBA against right handed and left handed pitching making virtually any pitcher they face an outstanding DFS play.

 

GPP

Cain

 

TB

Any Pitcher that faces off with the Royals merits consideration especially left handed pitchers. The Royals on the season sport .236 wOBA, .088 ISO, 7.9% walk rate, 15% line drive rate, 25% hard contact rate all of these are dead last in the Majors against left handers. Snell is coming off his best start of the season and on a per dollar basis I believe he is my favorite pitcher on the entire slate. The only concern I have with Snell is his tendency to walk batters. However the Royals have proven to have zero plate discipline as they swing at 33% of pitches outside of the strike zone (highest in the majors)

 

Cash

Snell

 

Gpp

Snell

Longoria

Beckham

Miller

 

 

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets

 

SF

I think Matt Moore is a rather intriguing play on tonight’s slate. The majority of the Met’s bats are left handers leading me to believe Moore could have one of the better outings of any pitcher on this slate. Citifield is a ballpark that tends to limit power to right handed bats too. The Mets this season against left handed pitching rank 28th in wOBA and runs created plus. They are also in the bottom tier at ISO, OBP, batting average, and SLUG. This game will likely result in the a pitchers duel.

 

Cash

Moore

 

Gpp

Moore

 

NYM

Jacob DeGrom is the highest priced pitcher on tonight’s slate but I most likely will not be paying the heightened price tag. The weather situation in Coors will determine how much exposure I have to DeGrom tonight. The way it sets up right now I think the Cubs bats are a must and it will be hard to have both DeGrom and Cubs bats in a “safe” lineup.

 

Cash

DeGrom

 

Gpp

DeGrom

Flores

 

 

New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds

 

NYY

Outside of Coors field, The Yankees are my favorite stack on the slate. I love all of the Yankees bats tonight especially in cash. Rookie Davis is not very good. He is truly a gas can pitcher. On the season Davis sports .415 wOBA to right-handed bats and a .477 to left-handed bats. He also holds a 27.3% line drive rate and basically a 41% fly ball rate against left-handed batters. Brett Gardner has recently changed his swing to a more upper-cut type swing along with the third highest wOBA against right handed pitching on the team.

 

Cash

Judge

Sanchez

Gardner

 

Gpp

Judge

Sanchez

Gardner

Headley

 

CIN

I do not have much interest in the Reds bats or Rookie Davis. Masahiro Tanaka should be in line for a fairly good outing no reason to target against him. Rookie Davis won’t last more than 4 innings making him never in play.

 

Gpp

Votto

 

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

 

STL

Of all the top tier priced pitchers I think Carlos Martinez is my favorite. Yesterday both Miguel Rojas and Martin Prado were injured in their game against the Mets. The Marlins on the season are a much better team against left handed pitchers than right handed ones too. Outside of his first start Martinez is coming off his second best outing on the season and should be able to compound off this in Miami.

 

Gpp

Fowler

Grichuk

Molina

 

MIA

None of the Marlins bats necessarily interest me against Carlos Martinez. Although the Cardinals aren’t an elite team against left-handed pitching I don’t like Conley enough to roster him tonight. There isn’t much to like in this game.

 

Gpp

Yelich

 

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies - Coors Alert

 

CHC

The Cubs are easily the best available bats on tonight’s slate. You have to love all the Cubs bats here in Coors against Senzatela. Senzatela this season is giving up the third most contact in the majors at a rate of 87%. The Cubs bats are the number one priority on this slate if the weather permits. Currently there are a line of thunderstorms in and around the Denver area. If Rizzo is healthy and starts he is easily by far the safest cash game bat on the entire slate. The Cubs have the highest implied run total of anyone on the slate by a long shot.

 

Cash

Heyward

Rizzo

Schwarber

Zobrist

Bryant

 

Gpp

Heyward

Rizzo

Schwarber

Zobrist

Bryant

 

 

COL

The Rockies will face off against Jake Arrieta tonight. The only Rockie bat that I have interest in is Charlie Blackmon. Arrieta is not his normal self so far this season his strikeout rate is down a bit and he’s giving up more homers then prior seasons. Blackmon even against elite pitchers is always in play at home. On the season he sports over a .500 wOBA and ISO at home which is outstanding. Arenado makes for a great GPP pivot too because the masses will likely gravitate towards Bryant.

 

Cash

Blackmon

 

Gpp

Blackmon

Arenado

 

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland A’s

 

LAA

Mike Trout is expected to be back in the Angels lineup tonight after missing a couple of games with an injury. Outside of Trout I usually have zero interest in playing any Angels. Trout so far in his career against Graveman has a .333 avg with 1 homerun and an exit average velocity of over 100 mph. The problem is if you’re going to spend up for trout you’ll have to roster him over the outfielders in Coors who are in a much better position to succeed.

 

Cash

Trout

 

Gpp

Trout

 

 

OAK

If Mike Trout doesn’t play tonight Graveman merits some consideration in GPPs. However he has already seen the Angels twice this season. He has one good start and one mediocre start against them. I usually don’t like playing any pitchers against the Angels because of they don’t tend to strikeout a ton. As far as the Oakland bats go Khris Davis is my favorite hitter on the A’s side he has the most homeruns against RHP in the past two seasons and Nolasco also sports extreme reverse split stats.

 

Gpp

Graveman

K Davis

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers

 

PIT

I don’t really have any interest in playing any Pirates bats tonight against Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy does give up a ton of hard contact to both handedness if I were to roster any Pirates I would be looking for one offs against him. McCarthy over the last two years gives up 38% to right handers and 34% to left handers.

 

Gpp

Bell

McCutchen

                          

 

LAD

I think the Dodgers make for an interesting GPP stack. They will be facing off against Trevor Williams who seems to be an extreme groundball pitcher according to his stats in the Minors. In the minors he didn’t give up a ton of homers and kept the ball on the ground at a fairly high rate. I’m unsure if this is a pitcher who hitters are able to generate a bunch of power. If I were to play any of the Dodgers it would be a full stack situation primarily with the lefties.

 

Gpp

Bellinger

Seager

Grandal

 

Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres

 

TEX

There isn’t much to like from the Rangers side of the plate. I’ll probably have a ton of exposure to Cahill leading me to a full fade of the Rangers

 

SD

I have a ton of interest in Trevor Cahill. Cahill has been very good so far this season. The Rangers have struckout at the 7th highest rate this season against right handed pitching with only a 17.9% line drive rate. If you pair this with the ballpark shift in the pitchers favor and the elimination of a DH spot you’ve got to believe that Cahill is in a great spot. On a per dollar basis I think Cahill is one of my favorite pitchers tonight.

 

Cash

Cahill

 

Gpp

Cahill

Free Monday Article

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

TOR

I likely won’t have any exposure to the Blue Jays tonight. I think Severino is really in the zone and none of the Blue Jays intrigue me. They should get Donaldson back mid week which will make them a much more lethal team.

                                                                                            

GPP

Estrada

 

NYY

Luis Severino makes for a very intriguing play tonight on DraftKings at just $8,000. He will be facing off against the Blue Jays who rank dead last in .wOBA and strikeout rate at 22.6%. They are in the bottom ten at runs created, walk rate, and isolated power. Severino seems like he is in a fine position for cash games. Severino’s fastball is averaging 97 mph while also holding a 33/2 K to walk rate. His groundball rate is also 11% points above from last season. He seemed to really have turned the corner at the start of this season. I also think some of the Yankees power bats are in play due to Estrada’s extreme fly ball tendencies. He has a flyball rate of over 50% this season and the Yankees are 7th in the majors in fly balls.

 

Cash

Severino

Judge

Headley

Gardner

 

GPP

Severino

Judge

Holiday

 

 

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers

CLE

Trevor Bauer is an interesting play tonight. He has pitched significantly better on the road dating back to last season. He holds a .289 wOBA on the road along with significant K upside. I do like the Indians bats they have an implied run total of 4.6 making them a good look. I like the right handed bats against the lefty Norris. Jose Ramirez has been excellent this year and I believe he is always in play unless going up against an ace. He is averaging 8.8 fantasy points a game this season proving to be somewhat elite this season.

 

Cash

Santana

Encarnacion

Ramirez

Lindor

 

GPP

Santana

Encarnacion

Ramirez

Lindor

 

DET

The Tigers offense seems to be spiraling out of control without Miguel Cabrera. The only bat that intrigues me is Nick Castellanos who sports the highest .wOBA against RHP.

 

GPP

Castellanos

 

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

BAL

I will not have any exposure to Bundy tonight but I like some of the Orioles bats are in play against Porcello in fenway. On the year Porcello has not been so hot particularly at Fenway. He has a .475 ERA and holds a .wOBA of .354 to LHB and .363 .wOBA overall at home. I think an Orioles stack makes for a sneaky look in GPPS.

 

Gpp

Machado

Davis

Jones

Trumbo

 

BOS

Dylan Bundy has proven to be a solid pitcher so far this season. He has already seen the Red Sox twice on the season and faired pretty well. There are much better pitchers to pick on tonight. I likely won’t have any exposure to any of the Red Sox bats.

 

Gpp

Benintendi

Betts

Porcello

 

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

PIT

I will be off Gerrit Cole tonight but I do have some interest in some cheap Pirates bats against Garrett. Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison are the two bats that primarily intrigue me. They are both in a hitter friendly ball park and have no problems mashing LHP. They will both be low owned and could be in for one offs against Garret.

 

Gpp

Harrison

Ozuna

McCutchen

 

CIN

Amir Garret makes for an interesting play again due to his depressed price. The Pirates are historically a good team against LHP however they are without two of their best bats against LHP. On the season they hold only a 22% hard hit rate and a 15% line drive rate. Garrett at $5,500 is priced like a scrub and he has shown he is far from one outside of his debacle against the Brewers who are one of the best hitters against LHP. He has a ton of upside at this price tag.

 

Cash

Garrett

 

Gpp

Garrett

Votto

Hamilton

Schebler

 

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins

TB

I really have a lot of interest in the Rays right-handed bats. They hit the ball very hard against LHP. Chen is a very easy guy to target against. He holds a 41.3% fly ball rate. The Rays are a team who hit a ton of fly balls with even more velocity behind them. I disagree with Vegas here as they only seem to think the Rays are in for under 4 total runs. He has only given up 3 homeruns this year but I’m almost positive that this number will increase. Longoria in particular holds amazing BVP against Chen.

 

Cash

Souza

Longoria

Weeks

 

Gpp

Souza

Longoria

Weeks

Beckham

Norris

 

MIA

I also have interest in the Marlins too. Jake Odorizzi holds tremendous reverse splits against RHB. Odorizzi has been very bad this year and is coming off a minor stint on the disabled list. He only has a 5.4 k/9 after a over 7 last season. He is giving up a ton of hard contact at 35% this year along with a 27.5% line drive rate. He is not missing bats and giving up hard hits.

 

Cash

Yelich

Stanton

Ozuna

 

Gpp

Yelich

Stanton

Ozuna

Realmuto

 

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

NYM

I have no interest in playing Gsellman I got absolutely burned by him last time around and will not make that same mistake. The numbers were deceiving due to the small sample size. The only mets I have interest in are Bruce and Conforto as one offs against Teheran.

 

Gpp

Conforto

Bruce

 

ATL

If you’ve read my write ups in the past you know I love playing left handed bats against Teheran. He struggles mightily against left handed bats. Against Lefties the last two years he is giving up .366 wOBA,, .477 SLUG,  33.2% hard contact rate. On such a huge slate They are in play for cash and GPP.  The Mets just saw him and got smoked but I think this time around they could get to him this time around. I do think Teheran merits some tournament consideration though.

Cash

Freeman

 

Gpp

Teheran

Freeman

 

 

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

PHI

I will not be playing any pitchers against the Cubs this season. They are a lethal lineup against any pitcher. Vince Velasquez does have extreme K upside but it likely won’t show against the Cubs. There is 21 mph gusts blowing out to straight center which will have an affect on both pitchers. Velasquez on the year holds a .431 wOBA against LHB. This mixed with the huge gusts out to center is essentially Coors lite.

Gpp

Franco

 

CHC

I think this makes for an interesting spot for Brett Anderson. He is an extreme groundball pitcher and the Phillies this season rank 6th in the majors in groundballs. However as mentioned above there is a 21 mph gusts blowing out to straight center making Anderson somewhat of a sketchy play. The Phillies did rank dead last in hard hit rate last season so it could be a spot to target Anderson. The only worry I have is if he accidentally hangs one for a guy like Franco to smash out of the park. Outside of Franco I think Anderson should have no problems churning through this Phillies lineup. Another reason I like Anderson a lot is because of the Cubs top ranked infield defense.

Cash

Rizzo

Heyward

Bryant

Schwarber

Anderson

 

Gpp

Rizzo

Heyward

Bryant

Zobrist

Montero

Anderson

 

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

TEX

The Rangers have just not come around as an offense yet. I have no interest in rostering any of these bats against McCullers who is proven to be one of the more consistent pitchers so far this season. However McCullers could run into some trouble because of his tendency to throw a ton of curveballs. The Rangers since last season are the best team against curveballs.

 

Gpp

Gomez

Napoli

 

HOU

Lance McCullers I think is one of the better GPP options on this slate because of his price and limited ownership levels. With Severino’s depressed price tag and Kershaw on the slate many will be off McCullers. McCullers last season was in the top 10 in terms of swinging strike rate. The Rangers this season are 9th in swing and miss rate. These two stats lead me to believe McCullers could rack up the Ks tonight at home. Josh Reddick could be my favorite play on the slate. All numbers lead to him having a great night.

Cash

Springer

Altuve

Reddick

 

Gpp

Springer

Altuve

Correa

Reddick

McCullers

 

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

CWS

Although the White Sox are one of the better hitters against LHP I don’t think I will be on them tonight. Jose Abreu has been on fire in the past week. He is 12/22 along with 6 straight games with multiple base hits. He also holds a .376 wOBA against LHP. It will be hard to play him though due to his heightened price and so many other good options at the first base position. I do have some interest in Dylan Covey as crazy as that sounds. The Royals cannot hit for the life of them right now. They allowed Phil Hughes to have a quality start against them. At just $4,600 on DraftKings you can easily pair him with Kershaw and grab a ton of bats to mix in there.

Cash

Abreu

 

Gpp

Garcia

Covey

Abreu

 

KC

I do not like Vargas tonight. He just saw the White Sox last week and got mashed. There is no strikeout upside against the White Sox. They are not the same team against RHP as they are with LHP.

Cash

Moustakis

 

Gpp

Moustakis

Hosmer

Gordon

Vargas

 

 

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

MIL

I usually don’t roster any hitters against Wacha. He doesn’t really give up much contact or hard hits. He has also been very consistent this season with 4 straight quality starts.

 

Cash

Thames

Braun

Shaw

 

STL

I think Jedd Gyorko is in a great spot tonight. He is another one of my favorite plays on this slate. I’m usually not a fan of BVP but I can’t ignore this sample size against Davies. Gyorko on his career is 7/10 against Davies with 3 doubles and a home run. Davies on the season holds a .478 wOBA and 43% hard hit rate against right handed bats. Gyorko on the year has a .436 wOBA and a 43% hard hit rate against RHP this season. I think he is virtually locked in for at least one extra base hit. Right now I don’t have any interest in Wacha tonight but if both Shaw and Braun are out then I may gravitate towards him in GPP.

Cash

Gyorko

Diaz

 

Gpp

Gyorko

Diaz

Fowler

Wacha

 

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

SF

This game will be relatively low scoring due to the aces on the mound. I will not be playing Cueto nor any of the Giants bats.

 

LAD

Clayton Kershaw is always in play whenever he pitches. However his price is rising slowly but surely. He is the best pitcher in baseball and will have no problem mowing through this lefty heavy Giants lineup. If you can build around him accordingly he’ll likely be the best pitcher play of the slate.

Cash

Kershaw