Monday 5/8 Nick’s DFS MLB Game Breakdown
Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
Although the price is a bit elevated, I do think Gio Gonzalez merits consideration in tournaments. The Orioles rank in the bottom fifth of most categories against left handed pitching also ranking first in strikeout rate against them too. However the Orioles did just beat up Jose Quintana yesterday leading me off of Gonzalez tonight. If Gonzalez has his stuff early he does have double digit K upside tonight. I think Bryce Harper is a phenomenal play tonight and could go fairly low owned tonight considering he is coming off an injury and the Coors Field effect.
I do not have much interest in the Orioles as a whole. They are a bottom tier team against left handed pitching. The only guys I have interest in are cheap one offs against Gonzalez. There are much more enticing options elsewhere on this slate.
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
I am really not anyone from this game as a whole. Usually the Indians bats are always in play but against an extreme groundball pitcher like Stroman it’s easy to look elsewhere on the slate. This will be Edwin Encarnacions first time back in Toronto and he could be attempting to seek some revenge. Stroman on the year sports a .392 wOBA against right-handed bats.
Usually I am on Marcus Stroman but not tonight against the Indians. I respect the Indians too much as a team. They are well put together lineup from top to bottom and his price seems a bit too high to roster tonight.
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
The Kansas City Royals are the worst offense in baseball. They just allowed Mike Cleavenger to pitch 5 innings striking out 6 batters on his way to a quality start in his first game of the season. I won’t be playing any of the Royals for a long time. They are a bottom tier team in wOBA against right handed and left handed pitching making virtually any pitcher they face an outstanding DFS play.
Any Pitcher that faces off with the Royals merits consideration especially left handed pitchers. The Royals on the season sport .236 wOBA, .088 ISO, 7.9% walk rate, 15% line drive rate, 25% hard contact rate all of these are dead last in the Majors against left handers. Snell is coming off his best start of the season and on a per dollar basis I believe he is my favorite pitcher on the entire slate. The only concern I have with Snell is his tendency to walk batters. However the Royals have proven to have zero plate discipline as they swing at 33% of pitches outside of the strike zone (highest in the majors)
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
I think Matt Moore is a rather intriguing play on tonight’s slate. The majority of the Met’s bats are left handers leading me to believe Moore could have one of the better outings of any pitcher on this slate. Citifield is a ballpark that tends to limit power to right handed bats too. The Mets this season against left handed pitching rank 28th in wOBA and runs created plus. They are also in the bottom tier at ISO, OBP, batting average, and SLUG. This game will likely result in the a pitchers duel.
Jacob DeGrom is the highest priced pitcher on tonight’s slate but I most likely will not be paying the heightened price tag. The weather situation in Coors will determine how much exposure I have to DeGrom tonight. The way it sets up right now I think the Cubs bats are a must and it will be hard to have both DeGrom and Cubs bats in a “safe” lineup.
New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds
Outside of Coors field, The Yankees are my favorite stack on the slate. I love all of the Yankees bats tonight especially in cash. Rookie Davis is not very good. He is truly a gas can pitcher. On the season Davis sports .415 wOBA to right-handed bats and a .477 to left-handed bats. He also holds a 27.3% line drive rate and basically a 41% fly ball rate against left-handed batters. Brett Gardner has recently changed his swing to a more upper-cut type swing along with the third highest wOBA against right handed pitching on the team.
I do not have much interest in the Reds bats or Rookie Davis. Masahiro Tanaka should be in line for a fairly good outing no reason to target against him. Rookie Davis won’t last more than 4 innings making him never in play.
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Of all the top tier priced pitchers I think Carlos Martinez is my favorite. Yesterday both Miguel Rojas and Martin Prado were injured in their game against the Mets. The Marlins on the season are a much better team against left handed pitchers than right handed ones too. Outside of his first start Martinez is coming off his second best outing on the season and should be able to compound off this in Miami.
None of the Marlins bats necessarily interest me against Carlos Martinez. Although the Cardinals aren’t an elite team against left-handed pitching I don’t like Conley enough to roster him tonight. There isn’t much to like in this game.
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies - Coors Alert
The Cubs are easily the best available bats on tonight’s slate. You have to love all the Cubs bats here in Coors against Senzatela. Senzatela this season is giving up the third most contact in the majors at a rate of 87%. The Cubs bats are the number one priority on this slate if the weather permits. Currently there are a line of thunderstorms in and around the Denver area. If Rizzo is healthy and starts he is easily by far the safest cash game bat on the entire slate. The Cubs have the highest implied run total of anyone on the slate by a long shot.
The Rockies will face off against Jake Arrieta tonight. The only Rockie bat that I have interest in is Charlie Blackmon. Arrieta is not his normal self so far this season his strikeout rate is down a bit and he’s giving up more homers then prior seasons. Blackmon even against elite pitchers is always in play at home. On the season he sports over a .500 wOBA and ISO at home which is outstanding. Arenado makes for a great GPP pivot too because the masses will likely gravitate towards Bryant.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland A’s
Mike Trout is expected to be back in the Angels lineup tonight after missing a couple of games with an injury. Outside of Trout I usually have zero interest in playing any Angels. Trout so far in his career against Graveman has a .333 avg with 1 homerun and an exit average velocity of over 100 mph. The problem is if you’re going to spend up for trout you’ll have to roster him over the outfielders in Coors who are in a much better position to succeed.
If Mike Trout doesn’t play tonight Graveman merits some consideration in GPPs. However he has already seen the Angels twice this season. He has one good start and one mediocre start against them. I usually don’t like playing any pitchers against the Angels because of they don’t tend to strikeout a ton. As far as the Oakland bats go Khris Davis is my favorite hitter on the A’s side he has the most homeruns against RHP in the past two seasons and Nolasco also sports extreme reverse split stats.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
I don’t really have any interest in playing any Pirates bats tonight against Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy does give up a ton of hard contact to both handedness if I were to roster any Pirates I would be looking for one offs against him. McCarthy over the last two years gives up 38% to right handers and 34% to left handers.
I think the Dodgers make for an interesting GPP stack. They will be facing off against Trevor Williams who seems to be an extreme groundball pitcher according to his stats in the Minors. In the minors he didn’t give up a ton of homers and kept the ball on the ground at a fairly high rate. I’m unsure if this is a pitcher who hitters are able to generate a bunch of power. If I were to play any of the Dodgers it would be a full stack situation primarily with the lefties.
Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres
There isn’t much to like from the Rangers side of the plate. I’ll probably have a ton of exposure to Cahill leading me to a full fade of the Rangers
I have a ton of interest in Trevor Cahill. Cahill has been very good so far this season. The Rangers have struckout at the 7th highest rate this season against right handed pitching with only a 17.9% line drive rate. If you pair this with the ballpark shift in the pitchers favor and the elimination of a DH spot you’ve got to believe that Cahill is in a great spot. On a per dollar basis I think Cahill is one of my favorite pitchers tonight.